![]() ![]() Of the four Republicans who voted for Manchin-Toomey in 2013, two are still in office: Toomey and Susan Collins of Maine. Moderates like Manchin and Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey, who sponsored the failed post-Sandy Hook background check legislation, haven’t given up on the legislation that bears their name. “But the politics are such that, overwhelmingly, people - including NRA members - want universal background checks.” “Clearly, Democrats would be under pressure in certain states,” Donohue said. Whether that translates into votes is another story. “I’ve talked to a lot of Republicans who are interested in having a discussion about finding a version of a comprehensive background checks bill that they can support,” Murphy said. That’s because their votes could mean the difference between a bill’s passage or failure.īehind the scenes, moderates seem receptive to gun reform. With the majority so slim, conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans will wield the most power. What are the chances that they might support gun reform? Louis, said that if Republicans repeatedly hold up action on bills that are important to Democrats, “we may end up seeing the attitudes of a few Democrats changing on the filibuster.” The new configuration will empower moderates. Gregg Distinguished Professor of Social Science at Washington University in St. That’s not to say we can’t make progress on gun violence.”īut Steven Smith, the Kate M. “Right now, there simply aren’t the votes to eliminate it. “The filibuster is unlikely to be eliminated anytime soon,” said Blumenthal. “I think it’s the only way that Biden can have an effective presidency.”įor now, though, it’s here to stay. “If they lose the filibuster, they’re lost,” John Donohue, a Stanford Law School professor, said of Democrats’ prospects of passing reforms. As long as the filibuster stands, Democrats need 60 votes for most legislation. But not every Democrat is on board - including West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, a longtime proponent of expanding background checks. If the filibuster were abolished, Democrats could pass gun reform with a simple majority. “It’s going to be hard to pass much of anything,” Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut tells The Trace.Ī more formidable obstacle to gun reform is the filibuster, which allows lawmakers to delay a vote on a bill. Four Republicans crossed party lines to vote yes, but only two of those lawmakers remain in the Senate. In 2013, four Democrats bucked their party and voted against a bill that would have expanded background checks to private gun sales, known as Manchin-Toomey. ![]() ![]() There’s no guarantee that they will vote along party lines. While Democrats hold a majority in the Senate, it’s as slim as it can be, with only one vote. Why isn’t that enough to enact gun reform? “Fighting gun violence has become not only good policy, but good politics,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, who’s pushing several pieces of gun reform legislation. Key Senate Democrats tell The Trace that a lot has changed since a universal background check measure failed after the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School - and they’re banking on the belief that it’s become politically risky for Republicans to oppose gun reforms. Nevertheless, lawmakers and anti-violence advocates remain hopeful, buoyed by President Joe Biden’s aggressive gun policy platform and broad public support for tighter gun laws. ![]() Unless Democrats in the upper chamber move to abolish the 60-vote rule - a prospect that appears increasingly unlikely - gun reform could remain a casualty of partisan gridlock. In January, when Democrats assumed control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in nearly a decade, they gained the ability to bring gun reform bills up for a vote, something former GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to do.īut the party is still nine votes short of the 60-vote supermajority needed to pass legislation in the Senate in the event of a filibuster. ![]()
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